Cottage sales in Ontario are on the verge of a rebound, say experts, with prices due to increase by significantly more than the same property type in any other province this year.

But, surprisingly, we don't top the list of the most expensive vacation homes in Canada — or even come nearly as close as one would expect — as far as average prices are concerned.

Per Royal LePage's Spring Recreational Property Report, released Wednesday, renewed interest and buyer confidence is expected to lead to a price hike of approximately 8 per cent in this sector of the market in Ontario this year.

This is compared to year-over-year price gains of just 5 per cent in B.C., 4.5 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 4 per cent in Alberta, 2 per cent in Quebec, 0.5 per cent in the Prairies and 5 per cent across Canada overall for similar listings.

But, while Ontario may be on track to see the largest jump in average price, two other provinces are far ahead of us as far as that average price itself: while a typical cottage in ON should go for about $662,148 this year, the same type of house will cost a whopping $1,240,825 in B.C. and a staggering $1,288,456 in Alberta, according to Royal LePage.

Chart showing anticipated changes in average vacation home prices across Canada this year, courtesy of Royal LePage.

"Across the nation there was a sizable rise in demand for all types of housing during the pandemic, but nothing could match the 'gold rush fever' that occurred in recreational property markets, with excess demand pushing recreational property prices to unprecedented heights," the real estate firm writes of the last few years.

"But inflation reared its ugly head, interest rates soared and the economic downturn that followed pushed cottage, cabin and chalet prices off those pandemic peaks — yet the fundamental demand for recreational living has not abated. We believe that this market segment will see a resurgence of activity in 2024."

Demand for homes in Ontario's cottage country declines but prices will rise in 2024😬 https://t.co/T0GiBJQXIJ #Ontario #OntarioRealEstate

— blogTO (@blogTO) November 29, 2023

Interestingly enough, this prediction for Ontario vs. other provinces represents a complete flip of what our non-recreational housing market is doing right now — a report shared by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Monday shows that our province has experienced the lowest escalation in average home prices out of any in the last year.

While the average price of a home in, say, New Brunswick soared by 12.9 per cent between February 2023 and February 2024, in Ontario, the average price rose a relatively meagre 1.3 per cent.

Based on the mean price point, the standard home in the province will now run you $873,207 — $1,108,720 in the GTA specifically — which is far less than a vacation home.

Home prices in Ontario are somehow rising less drastically than any other province https://t.co/iwZpLly744

— blogTO (@blogTO) March 18, 2024

Of course, with the cost of living in Ontario, not many can really say with any surety that they will ever be able to afford either, let alone both, in their lifetime here.